Over 1.5 goals@1.75
Over 1.5
57%
BHRPremier League · Matchday 6Saturday, 24 October 2026
Malkiya
12th · 2 pts1–1FULL TIME
Al Ahli
5th · 9 pts17% Malkiya
29% Draw
54% Al
OUR PICK
Al Ahli to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.84
Expected goals
0.60 – 1.32
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.91X3.4721.84
Goals 2.5Over3.14Under1.43
Both scoreGG2.86NG1.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.43
Under 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.49
NG
67%
Double chance@1.20
X2
83%
Season stats
MalkiyaAl Ahli0.3Goals per game1.0
1.9Conceded per game1.0
0.29Points per game1.29
0%Win rate29%
-11Goal difference0
2Form, last 5 (pts)5
Malkiya form
LDLDLA Al Ittifaq Maqaba3–0
H Al Ahli1–1
A Muharraq3–0
H Al Riffa1–1
A A'Ali1–0
Al Ahli form
DDLWLH East Riffa0–0
A Malkiya1–1
H Khalidiya1–2
A Manama1–3
H Al Ittifaq Maqaba0–2
Head to head
0
Malkiya
4
Draw
1
Al
Oct 2026Malkiya – Al Ahli1–1
Apr 2026Al Ahli – Malkiya0–0
Oct 2025Malkiya – Al Ahli1–1
May 2025Al Ahli – Malkiya4–3
Feb 2025Malkiya – Al Ahli1–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al Riffa7+1115
2Khalidiya7+1015
3Al Ittifaq Maqaba7+514
4Muharraq7+411
5Al Ahli709
6East Riffa7-58
7Sitra7-28
8Al Najma7-48
9A'Ali7-38
10Al-Hidd707
Match preview
Our model makes Al Ahli clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.84 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (0.60 for Malkiya, 1.32 for Al Ahli), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Malkiya sit 12th on 2 points; Al Ahli are 5th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.