Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 9Sunday, 18 October 2026 · La Rosaleda
Malaga
20th · 5 pts2–5FULL TIME
Real Sociedad
5th · 19 pts30% Malaga
27% Draw
44% Real
OUR PICK
Real Sociedad to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.28
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.40
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.38X3.7522.28
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.84
Both scoreGG1.99NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.99
GG
50%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
MalagaReal Sociedad0.7Goals per game1.8
1.9Conceded per game1.8
0.45Points per game1.73
0%Win rate55%
-13Goal difference0
2Form, last 5 (pts)12
Malaga form
LWDLDA Real Betis2–1
A Alcazar0–3
A Alaves1–1
H Real Sociedad2–5
H Espanyol1–1
Real Sociedad form
LWWWDA Athletic Club2–1
H Levante2–1
A Lillestrom0–6
A Malaga2–5
A Union St. Gilloise1–1
Head to head
2
Malaga
1
Draw
2
Real
Oct 2026Malaga – Real Sociedad2–5
Jan 2024Malaga – Real Sociedad0–1
Apr 2018Malaga – Real Sociedad2–0
Dec 2017Real Sociedad – Malaga0–2
May 2017Real Sociedad – Malaga2–2
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Real Sociedad slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.28 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.10 for Malaga, 1.40 for Real Sociedad), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Malaga sit 20th on 5 points; Real Sociedad are 5th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.