Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 12Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Estadio La Rosaleda
Malaga
20th · 5 pts14:00KICK-OFF WAT
Racing Santander
16th · 11 pts38% Malaga
23% Draw
38% Racing
OUR PICK
Racing Santander to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.60
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.60
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.63X4.2622.60
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.57NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.57
GG
64%
Double chance@1.31
12
77%
Season stats
MalagaRacing Santander0.7Goals per game1.5
1.9Conceded per game2.6
0.45Points per game1.10
0%Win rate30%
-13Goal difference-11
2Form, last 5 (pts)4
Malaga form
LWDLDA Real Betis2–1
A Alcazar0–3
A Alaves1–1
H Real Sociedad2–5
H Espanyol1–1
Racing Santander form
LWWLDH Real Madrid0–3
A Ribadesella CF0–2
H Espanyol2–1
A Osasuna2–0
H Valencia2–2
Head to head
0
Malaga
2
Draw
3
Racing
May 2026Malaga – Racing Santander1–1
Oct 2025Racing Santander – Malaga3–0
Feb 2025Racing Santander – Malaga2–1
Nov 2024Malaga – Racing Santander0–0
Mar 2023Malaga – Racing Santander0–1
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid10+1524
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad10+119
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club9+312
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Malaga 38%, the draw 23%, Racing Santander 38%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.60 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.59 for Malaga, 1.60 for Racing Santander), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Malaga sit 20th on 5 points; Racing Santander are 16th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.