Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
68%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 8Friday, 9 October 2026 · Estadio La Rosaleda
Malaga
20th · 5 pts1–1FULL TIME
Espanyol
14th · 11 pts25% Malaga
27% Draw
48% Espanyol
OUR PICK
Espanyol to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.08
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.42
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.01X3.7122.08
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.86
NG
54%
Double chance@1.33
X2
75%
Season stats
MalagaEspanyol0.7Goals per game1.2
1.9Conceded per game1.3
0.45Points per game1.00
0%Win rate27%
-13Goal difference-1
2Form, last 5 (pts)4
Malaga form
LWDLDA Real Betis2–1
A Alcazar0–3
A Alaves1–1
H Real Sociedad2–5
H Espanyol1–1
Espanyol form
WLLLDA Villarreal0–1
A Sestao River4–3
A Racing Santander2–1
H Atletico Madrid0–1
A Malaga1–1
Head to head
0
Malaga
1
Draw
4
Espanyol
Oct 2026Malaga – Espanyol1–1
May 2021Espanyol – Malaga3–0
Nov 2020Malaga – Espanyol0–3
Sept 2020Espanyol – Malaga3–0
May 2018Espanyol – Malaga4–1
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Espanyol slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.08 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (0.94 for Malaga, 1.42 for Espanyol), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Malaga sit 20th on 5 points; Espanyol are 14th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.