Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 14Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Machida GION Stadium
Machida Zelvia
3rd · 28 pts06:00KICK-OFF WAT
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2nd · 29 pts43% Machida
25% Draw
32% Sanfrecce
OUR PICK
Machida Zelvia to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.34
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.25
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.34X3.9423.14
Goals 2.5Over1.94Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Machida ZelviaSanfrecce Hiroshima2.3Goals per game2.5
0.8Conceded per game0.8
2.15Points per game2.23
62%Win rate69%
20Goal difference22
11Form, last 5 (pts)12
Machida Zelvia form
DWDWWH Gamba Osaka0–0
A Shanghai Shenhua0–1
A Vissel Kobe0–0
A Shimizu S-pulse0–5
H Avispa Fukuoka3–0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Machida
0
Draw
0
Sanfrecce
These sides haven't met recently.
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Machida Zelvia slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.49 for Machida Zelvia, 1.25 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Machida Zelvia sit 3rd on 28 points; Sanfrecce Hiroshima are 2nd on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.