Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
82%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 13Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Machida GION Stadium
Machida Zelvia
3rd · 28 pts0–0FULL TIME
Gamba Osaka
16th · 12 pts78% Machida
15% Draw
8% Gamba
OUR PICK
Machida Zelvia to win
Model probability 78% · fair odds
1.29
Expected goals
2.51 – 0.66
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.29X6.81212.95
Goals 2.5Over1.63Under2.42
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.80
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.80
NG
56%
Double chance@1.08
1X
92%
Season stats
Machida ZelviaGamba Osaka2.3Goals per game1.1
0.8Conceded per game1.6
2.15Points per game0.92
62%Win rate15%
20Goal difference-7
11Form, last 5 (pts)6
Machida Zelvia form
DWDWWH Gamba Osaka0–0
A Shanghai Shenhua0–1
A Vissel Kobe0–0
A Shimizu S-pulse0–5
H Avispa Fukuoka3–0
Gamba Osaka form
DDDWDA Machida Zelvia0–0
H Buriram United1–1
H Kyoto Sanga2–2
A Avispa Fukuoka1–2
A Shimizu S-pulse2–2
Head to head
3
Machida
1
Draw
1
Gamba
Nov 2026Machida Zelvia – Gamba Osaka0–0
Jan 2026Gamba Osaka – Machida Zelvia3–2
Aug 2025Machida Zelvia – Gamba Osaka3–1
Apr 2025Gamba Osaka – Machida Zelvia0–1
Jun 2024Gamba Osaka – Machida Zelvia1–3
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Machida Zelvia clear favourites, giving them a 78% chance of winning against 15% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.51 for Machida Zelvia, 0.66 for Gamba Osaka), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Machida Zelvia sit 3rd on 28 points; Gamba Osaka are 16th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.