Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 10Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Machida GION Stadium
Machida Zelvia
3rd · 28 pts3–0FULL TIME
Avispa Fukuoka
20th · 7 pts78% Machida
14% Draw
8% Avispa
OUR PICK
Machida Zelvia to win
Model probability 78% · fair odds
1.29
Expected goals
2.59 – 0.71
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.29X6.95212.53
Goals 2.5Over1.57Under2.62
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.89
NG
53%
Double chance@1.09
1X
92%
Season stats
Machida ZelviaAvispa Fukuoka2.3Goals per game1.0
0.8Conceded per game1.8
2.15Points per game0.54
62%Win rate15%
20Goal difference-11
11Form, last 5 (pts)3
Machida Zelvia form
DWDWWH Gamba Osaka0–0
A Shanghai Shenhua0–1
A Vissel Kobe0–0
A Shimizu S-pulse0–5
H Avispa Fukuoka3–0
Avispa Fukuoka form
LLLLLA JEF United Chiba3–0
A Tokyo Verdy3–1
H Gamba Osaka1–2
A Machida Zelvia3–0
A Sagan Tosu2–1
Head to head
2
Machida
3
Draw
0
Avispa
Oct 2026Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka3–0
Oct 2025Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka0–0
Mar 2025Avispa Fukuoka – Machida Zelvia2–2
Sept 2024Avispa Fukuoka – Machida Zelvia0–3
Jun 2024Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka0–0
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Machida Zelvia clear favourites, giving them a 78% chance of winning against 14% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.59 for Machida Zelvia, 0.71 for Avispa Fukuoka), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Machida Zelvia sit 3rd on 28 points; Avispa Fukuoka are 20th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.