Over 1.5 goals@1.53
Over 1.5
65%
AUSA-League · Matchday 4Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Campbelltown Stadium
Macarthur
3rd · 5 pts05:00KICK-OFF WAT
Brisbane Roar
4th · 4 pts42% Macarthur
29% Draw
29% Brisbane
OUR PICK
Macarthur to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.38
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.99
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.38X3.5023.39
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.63
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.81
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.81
NG
55%
Double chance@1.40
12
71%
Season stats
MacarthurBrisbane Roar1.0Goals per game1.5
0.7Conceded per game1.0
1.67Points per game2.00
33%Win rate50%
1Goal difference1
5Form, last 5 (pts)4
Macarthur form
DDWDWH Western Sydney Wanderers0–0
A Newcastle Jets1–1
H Perth Glory2–1
A SD Raiders1–1
A Uni Azzurri0–3
Brisbane Roar form
DWWLWH Auckland1–1
H Perth Glory2–1
A Olympic3–4
H Sydney2–4
A Sydney Olympic0–3
Head to head
3
Macarthur
1
Draw
1
Brisbane
Dec 2025Macarthur – Brisbane Roar2–1
Oct 2025Brisbane Roar – Macarthur1–0
Apr 2025Brisbane Roar – Macarthur1–5
Nov 2024Macarthur – Brisbane Roar4–4
Mar 2024Brisbane Roar – Macarthur1–2
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Perth Glory3+23
9Melbourne Victory3-12
10Central Coast Mariners3-22
Match preview
Our model makes Macarthur slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.24 for Macarthur, 0.99 for Brisbane Roar), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Macarthur sit 3rd on 5 points; Brisbane Roar are 4th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.