Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Parc Olympique Lyonnais
Lyon
3rd · 17 pts2–1FULL TIME
Nice
8th · 14 pts53% Lyon
25% Draw
21% Nice
OUR PICK
Lyon to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.88
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.89
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.88X3.9424.69
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.80
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.88
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.88
NG
53%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Season stats
LyonNice1.7Goals per game1.4
0.8Conceded per game1.3
1.89Points per game1.56
56%Win rate44%
8Goal difference1
9Form, last 5 (pts)12
Lyon form
WLLWWH Angers2–0
A Paris Saint Germain2–0
A 1899 Hoffenheim3–0
H Nice2–1
H Crystal Palace3–2
Nice form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Lyon
0
Draw
0
Nice
These sides haven't met recently.
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Lyon clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.88 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.57 for Lyon, 0.89 for Nice), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lyon sit 3rd on 17 points; Nice are 8th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.