Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
84%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Groupama Stadium
Lyon
12th · 6 pts3–2FULL TIME
Crystal Palace
15th · 4 pts26% Lyon
22% Draw
53% Crystal
OUR PICK
Crystal Palace to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.99
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.89X4.6021.90
Goals 2.5Over1.55Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.57NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.55
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.57
GG
64%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
LyonCrystal Palace1.7Goals per game2.7
2.0Conceded per game1.7
2.00Points per game1.33
67%Win rate33%
-1Goal difference3
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
Lyon form
WLLWWH Angers2–0
A Paris Saint Germain2–0
A 1899 Hoffenheim3–0
H Nice2–1
H Crystal Palace3–2
Crystal Palace form
LWLDLA Tottenham2–0
A Fulham0–1
H Newcastle0–2
A Beşiktaş2–2
A Brighton5–0
Head to head
1
Lyon
0
Draw
1
Crystal
Oct 2026Lyon – Crystal Palace3–2
Aug 2023Crystal Palace – Lyon2–0
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Crystal Palace slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.34 for Lyon, 1.99 for Crystal Palace), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lyon sit 12th on 6 points; Crystal Palace are 15th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.