Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
88%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 13Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Kenilworth Road
Luton
4th · 23 pts2–1FULL TIME
Leicester
10th · 19 pts49% Luton
21% Draw
30% Leicester
OUR PICK
Luton to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.06
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.62
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.06X4.7323.30
Goals 2.5Over1.40Under3.25
Both scoreGG1.42NG3.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.40
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.42
GG
70%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
LutonLeicester2.0Goals per game1.7
1.5Conceded per game1.5
1.77Points per game1.46
54%Win rate38%
6Goal difference3
12Form, last 5 (pts)10
Luton form
WWWWLA Peterborough0–2
H Doncaster3–1
H Leicester2–1
H Barnsley2–1
A Milton Keynes Dons2–1
Leicester form
DWLWWH Stevenage2–2
H Wigan3–0
A Luton2–1
A Bromley0–4
H Doncaster2–1
Head to head
1
Luton
0
Draw
1
Leicester
Oct 2026Luton – Leicester2–1
Sept 2019Luton – Leicester0–4
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Luton slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.06 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (2.08 for Luton, 1.62 for Leicester), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Luton sit 4th on 23 points; Leicester are 10th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.