Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 9Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Estadio Do Lusitania
Lusitânia Lourosa
2nd · 18 pts1–1FULL TIME
Farense
6th · 14 pts53% Lusitânia
23% Draw
24% Farense
OUR PICK
Lusitânia Lourosa to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.15
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.90X4.3224.12
Goals 2.5Over1.77Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.75NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.75
GG
57%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
Lusitânia LourosaFarense1.8Goals per game1.8
0.9Conceded per game1.3
2.25Points per game1.75
63%Win rate50%
7Goal difference4
11Form, last 5 (pts)7
Lusitânia Lourosa form
No recent matches.
Farense form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Lusitânia
0
Draw
0
Farense
These sides haven't met recently.
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Lusitânia Lourosa8+718
3Benfica B9+517
4Penafiel8+1016
5Academica9+315
6Farense8+414
7União de Leiria9+214
8Vizela9+114
9AVS9+112
10Tondela8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Lusitânia Lourosa slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.80 for Lusitânia Lourosa, 1.15 for Farense), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lusitânia Lourosa sit 2nd on 18 points; Farense are 6th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.