Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
85%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 7Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Do Lusitania
Lusitânia Lourosa
2nd · 19 pts1–1FULL TIME
Chaves
15th · 8 pts77% Lusitânia
15% Draw
9% Chaves
OUR PICK
Lusitânia Lourosa to win
Model probability 77% · fair odds
1.30
Expected goals
2.63 – 0.78
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.30X6.88211.42
Goals 2.5Over1.51Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.99NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.51
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.99
GG
50%
Double chance@1.10
1X
91%
Season stats
Lusitânia LourosaChaves1.7Goals per game1.0
0.9Conceded per game2.0
2.11Points per game0.89
56%Win rate22%
7Goal difference-9
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
Lusitânia Lourosa form
DDWDWH Farense1–1
A Felgueiras 19322–2
H Os Limianos2–1
H Chaves1–1
A Madalena1–3
Chaves form
LWWDLA Benfica B3–1
H Vizela2–1
H Os Marialvas2–1
A Lusitânia Lourosa1–1
A Farense4–0
Head to head
0
Lusitânia
3
Draw
1
Chaves
Oct 2026Lusitânia Lourosa – Chaves1–1
Jan 2026Chaves – Lusitânia Lourosa2–2
Aug 2025Lusitânia Lourosa – Chaves2–2
Oct 2024Chaves – Lusitânia Lourosa2–0
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Lusitânia Lourosa9+719
3Benfica B9+517
4Penafiel8+1016
5Farense9+415
6Academica9+315
7Tondela9+215
8Vizela9+114
9União de Leiria9+214
10AVS9+112
Match preview
Our model makes Lusitânia Lourosa clear favourites, giving them a 77% chance of winning against 15% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.30 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.63 for Lusitânia Lourosa, 0.78 for Chaves), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lusitânia Lourosa sit 2nd on 19 points; Chaves are 15th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.