Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
73%
BULFirst League · Matchday 11Monday, 12 October 2026 · Huvepharma Arena
Ludogorets
3rd · 29 pts5–0FULL TIME
Arda Kardzhali
6th · 18 pts55% Ludogorets
24% Draw
21% Arda
OUR PICK
Ludogorets to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.82
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.91
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.82X4.1024.86
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.90
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.94
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.94
NG
52%
Double chance@1.26
1X
79%
Season stats
LudogoretsArda Kardzhali2.0Goals per game1.3
0.8Conceded per game1.5
2.42Points per game1.50
75%Win rate42%
15Goal difference-2
12Form, last 5 (pts)2
Ludogorets form
WLWWWA Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–3
A CSKA Sofia2–0
A Beroe0–3
H Arda Kardzhali5–0
H Cherno More Varna5–0
Arda Kardzhali form
DWLLDH Levski Sofia1–1
A Spartak Plovdiv1–2
A Ludogorets5–0
A Lokomotiv Plovdiv2–0
H Cherno More Varna1–1
Head to head
1
Ludogorets
2
Draw
2
Arda
Oct 2026Ludogorets – Arda Kardzhali5–0
Apr 2026Arda Kardzhali – Ludogorets1–0
Nov 2025Ludogorets – Arda Kardzhali2–3
May 2025Ludogorets – Arda Kardzhali2–2
May 2025Arda Kardzhali – Ludogorets1–1
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali12-218
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Dunav Ruse13-711
10Botev Vratsa12-1110
Match preview
Our model makes Ludogorets clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.82 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.66 for Ludogorets, 0.91 for Arda Kardzhali), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ludogorets sit 3rd on 29 points; Arda Kardzhali are 6th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.