Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
USAUSL Championship · Round of 16Friday, 30 October 2026 · Lynn Family Stadium
Louisville City
4th · 47 pts1–0FULL TIME
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
5th · 45 pts44% Louisville
26% Draw
29% Pittsburgh
OUR PICK
Louisville City to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.25
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.12
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.25X3.8123.40
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.95NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.95
GG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
Louisville CityPittsburgh Riverhounds1.7Goals per game1.1
1.4Conceded per game1.0
1.57Points per game1.50
43%Win rate43%
8Goal difference3
13Form, last 5 (pts)7
Louisville City form
WDWWWH Pittsburgh Riverhounds1–0
H Detroit City0–0
A Sporting JAX0–2
H Indy Eleven4–1
A Charleston Battery0–2
Pittsburgh Riverhounds form
LWDWLA Louisville City1–0
H Birmingham Legion2–1
A Rhode Island1–1
H Hartford Athletic2–1
A Orange County SC1–0
Head to head
0
Louisville
0
Draw
0
Pittsburgh
These sides haven't met recently.
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Louisville City slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.44 for Louisville City, 1.12 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Louisville City sit 4th on 47 points; Pittsburgh Riverhounds are 5th on 45.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.