Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSaturday, 17 October 2026 · Lynn Family Stadium
Louisville City
4th · 47 pts4–1FULL TIME
Indy Eleven
9th · 34 pts50% Louisville
24% Draw
26% Indy
OUR PICK
Louisville City to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
1.99
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.13
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.99X4.1423.90
Goals 2.5Over1.88Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.88
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Louisville CityIndy Eleven1.7Goals per game1.2
1.4Conceded per game1.4
1.57Points per game1.13
43%Win rate30%
8Goal difference-6
13Form, last 5 (pts)1
Louisville City form
WDWWWH Pittsburgh Riverhounds1–0
H Detroit City0–0
A Sporting JAX0–2
H Indy Eleven4–1
A Charleston Battery0–2
Indy Eleven form
LLLDLA Charleston Battery1–0
A Louisville City4–1
H Tampa Bay Rowdies1–3
A Loudoun United1–1
A Rhode Island1–0
Head to head
3
Louisville
1
Draw
1
Indy
Oct 2026Louisville City – Indy Eleven4–1
Aug 2026Indy Eleven – Louisville City2–1
Oct 2025Louisville City – Indy Eleven2–0
Aug 2025Indy Eleven – Louisville City1–3
Oct 2024Indy Eleven – Louisville City2–2
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Louisville City slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.99 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.68 for Louisville City, 1.13 for Indy Eleven), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Louisville City sit 4th on 47 points; Indy Eleven are 9th on 34.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.