Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSaturday, 3 October 2026 · Segra Field
Loudoun United
10th · 31 pts1–1FULL TIME
Indy Eleven
9th · 34 pts42% Loudoun
26% Draw
32% Indy
OUR PICK
Loudoun United to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.38
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.25
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.38X3.9123.09
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.83NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.83
GG
55%
Double chance@1.34
12
74%
Season stats
Loudoun UnitedIndy Eleven1.3Goals per game1.2
1.6Conceded per game1.4
1.03Points per game1.13
20%Win rate30%
-10Goal difference-6
8Form, last 5 (pts)1
Loudoun United form
WDLWDH Brooklyn4–3
A Birmingham Legion0–0
A Rhode Island1–0
A Miami FC0–2
H Indy Eleven1–1
Indy Eleven form
LLLDLA Charleston Battery1–0
A Louisville City4–1
H Tampa Bay Rowdies1–3
A Loudoun United1–1
A Rhode Island1–0
Head to head
2
Loudoun
1
Draw
2
Indy
Oct 2026Loudoun United – Indy Eleven1–1
Jul 2026Indy Eleven – Loudoun United0–1
Oct 2025Indy Eleven – Loudoun United2–1
Aug 2025Loudoun United – Indy Eleven3–2
Oct 2024Loudoun United – Indy Eleven0–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Loudoun United slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.46 for Loudoun United, 1.25 for Indy Eleven), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Loudoun United sit 10th on 31 points; Indy Eleven are 9th on 34.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.