Over 1.5 goals@1.55
Over 1.5
65%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 9Monday, 2 November 2026 · Stade du Moustoir
Lorient
10th · 12 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Stade Brestois 29
13th · 9 pts41% Lorient
29% Draw
30% Stade
OUR PICK
Lorient to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.43
Expected goals
1.21 – 0.99
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.43X3.4623.33
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.61
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.79
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.79
NG
56%
Double chance@1.41
12
71%
Season stats
LorientStade Brestois 290.9Goals per game1.8
0.8Conceded per game1.5
1.50Points per game1.13
38%Win rate25%
1Goal difference2
8Form, last 5 (pts)4
Lorient form
No recent matches.
Stade Brestois 29 form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Lorient
0
Draw
0
Stade
These sides haven't met recently.
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Rennes9+116
4Monaco8+415
5Lyon8+614
6Paris FC8+414
7Nice9+114
8Lens9+313
9Marseille8+512
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Lorient slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.21 for Lorient, 0.99 for Stade Brestois 29), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lorient sit 10th on 12 points; Stade Brestois 29 are 13th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.