Over 1.5 goals@1.57
Over 1.5
64%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Stade du Moustoir
Lorient
10th · 12 pts1–0FULL TIME
Paris FC
6th · 14 pts33% Lorient
29% Draw
37% Paris
OUR PICK
Paris FC to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.68
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.12
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.01X3.4022.68
Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.58
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.58
Under 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.77
NG
56%
Double chance@1.42
12
71%
Season stats
LorientParis FC0.9Goals per game1.6
0.8Conceded per game1.1
1.50Points per game1.75
38%Win rate50%
1Goal difference4
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
Lorient form
DWWLDA Angers0–0
H Monaco1–0
H Paris FC1–0
A Le Mans2–1
H Toulouse2–2
Paris FC form
WLWLWH Monaco3–1
A Lens2–1
H Rennes4–3
A Lorient1–0
H Strasbourg2–1
Head to head
2
Lorient
1
Draw
2
Paris
Oct 2026Lorient – Paris FC1–0
Apr 2026Lorient – Paris FC1–1
Feb 2026Lorient – Paris FC2–0
Oct 2025Paris FC – Lorient2–0
Mar 2025Paris FC – Lorient3–2
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Rennes9+116
4Monaco8+415
5Lyon8+614
6Paris FC8+414
7Nice9+114
8Lens9+313
9Marseille8+512
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Lorient 33%, the draw 29%, Paris FC 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.68 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.04 for Lorient, 1.12 for Paris FC), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lorient sit 10th on 12 points; Paris FC are 6th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.