Over 1.5 goals@1.59
Over 1.5
63%
BULFirst League · Matchday 11Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Stadion Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv Sofia
12th · 9 pts1–1FULL TIME
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
13th · 9 pts50% Lokomotiv
28% Draw
22% Lokomotiv
OUR PICK
Lokomotiv Sofia to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.00
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.79
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.00X3.5624.56
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.57
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.68
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.68
NG
60%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv1.2Goals per game0.5
1.9Conceded per game1.3
0.69Points per game0.69
8%Win rate15%
-10Goal difference-11
5Form, last 5 (pts)3
Lokomotiv Sofia form
LDWDWH Botev Plovdiv2–5
H Botev Vratsa1–1
A Vihren1–2
H Lokomotiv Plovdiv1–1
H Radnicki NIS4–1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv form
LDWWDH Ludogorets0–3
H Slavia Sofia0–0
A Cherno More Varna0–1
A Yantra 20190–2
A Lokomotiv Sofia1–1
Head to head
0
Lokomotiv
4
Draw
1
Lokomotiv
Oct 2026Lokomotiv Sofia – Lokomotiv Plovdiv1–1
Apr 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Lokomotiv Sofia1–0
Oct 2025Lokomotiv Sofia – Lokomotiv Plovdiv2–2
Jul 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Lokomotiv Sofia1–1
May 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Lokomotiv Sofia1–1
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali13-121
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Cherno More Varna13-812
10Dunav Ruse13-711
Match preview
Our model makes Lokomotiv Sofia slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.00 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.35 for Lokomotiv Sofia, 0.79 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lokomotiv Sofia sit 12th on 9 points; Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 13th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.