Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
BULFirst League · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Stadion Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv Sofia
12th · 9 pts1–1FULL TIME
Botev Vratsa
11th · 10 pts51% Lokomotiv
24% Draw
25% Botev
OUR PICK
Lokomotiv Sofia to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.97
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.10
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.97X4.1223.99
Goals 2.5Over1.91Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.85NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.85
GG
54%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Lokomotiv SofiaBotev Vratsa1.2Goals per game0.8
1.9Conceded per game1.7
0.69Points per game0.77
8%Win rate15%
-10Goal difference-12
5Form, last 5 (pts)3
Lokomotiv Sofia form
LDWDWH Botev Plovdiv2–5
H Botev Vratsa1–1
A Vihren1–2
H Lokomotiv Plovdiv1–1
H Radnicki NIS4–1
Botev Vratsa form
DWLLLA Lokomotiv Sofia1–1
A Fratria1–2
A Botev Plovdiv2–0
H Spartak Varna0–1
A Slavia Sofia2–1
Head to head
1
Lokomotiv
2
Draw
2
Botev
Oct 2026Lokomotiv Sofia – Botev Vratsa1–1
May 2026Lokomotiv Sofia – Botev Vratsa2–2
Apr 2026Botev Vratsa – Lokomotiv Sofia3–2
Nov 2025Lokomotiv Sofia – Botev Vratsa0–1
May 2025Lokomotiv Sofia – Botev Vratsa3–0
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali12-218
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Cherno More Varna13-812
10Dunav Ruse13-711
Match preview
Our model makes Lokomotiv Sofia slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.97 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.67 for Lokomotiv Sofia, 1.10 for Botev Vratsa), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lokomotiv Sofia sit 12th on 9 points; Botev Vratsa are 11th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.