BULFirst League · Matchday 14Friday, 30 October 2026 · Lokomotiv Stadium

Lokomotiv Sofia

12th · 9 pts

2–5FULL TIME

Botev Plovdiv

5th · 22 pts

36% Lokomotiv

25% Draw

39% Botev

OUR PICK

Botev Plovdiv to win

Model probability 39% · fair odds

2.56

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.47

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.78X4.0122.56

Goals 2.5Over1.83Under2.10

Both scoreGG1.72NG2.25

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.28

Over 1.5

78%

Over/Under 2.5@1.83

Over 2.5

55%

Both teams to score@1.72

58%

Double chance@1.33

75%

Season stats

Lokomotiv SofiaBotev Plovdiv

1.2Goals per game1.7

1.9Conceded per game1.5

0.69Points per game1.69

8%Win rate54%

-10Goal difference2

5Form, last 5 (pts)12

Lokomotiv Sofia form

LDWDW

H Botev Plovdiv2–5

H Botev Vratsa1–1

A Vihren1–2

H Lokomotiv Plovdiv1–1

H Radnicki NIS4–1

Botev Plovdiv form

WLWWW

A Lokomotiv Sofia2–5

A CSKA 19484–0

A Chernomorets 1919 Burgas0–4

H Botev Vratsa2–0

H Slavia Sofia1–0

Head to head

Lokomotiv

Draw

Botev

Oct 2026Lokomotiv Sofia – Botev Plovdiv2–5

Jul 2026Botev Plovdiv – Lokomotiv Sofia1–1

Mar 2026Botev Plovdiv – Lokomotiv Sofia3–1

Dec 2025Lokomotiv Sofia – Botev Plovdiv3–2

Aug 2025Botev Plovdiv – Lokomotiv Sofia0–1

First League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Levski Sofia12+2032

2CSKA Sofia13+2031

3Ludogorets12+1529

4CSKA 194813+1728

5Botev Plovdiv13+222

6Arda Kardzhali12-218

7Slavia Sofia13013

8Spartak Varna13-1113

9Dunav Ruse13-711

10Botev Vratsa12-1110

Match preview

Our model sees little between the sides: Lokomotiv Sofia 36%, the draw 25%, Botev Plovdiv 39%.

Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.56 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.40 for Lokomotiv Sofia, 1.47 for Botev Plovdiv), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Lokomotiv Sofia sit 12th on 9 points; Botev Plovdiv are 5th on 22.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

Discuss on Telegram More First League tips