Over 1.5 goals@2.54
Over 1.5
39%
BULFirst League · Matchday 12Monday, 26 October 2026 · Stadion Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
11th · 9 pts0–0FULL TIME
Slavia Sofia
7th · 13 pts22% Lokomotiv
38% Draw
40% Slavia
OUR PICK
Slavia Sofia to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.50
Expected goals
0.53 – 0.83
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.59X2.6122.50
Goals 2.5Over5.90Under1.19
Both scoreGG4.10NG1.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.19
Under 2.5
84%
Both teams to score@1.30
NG
77%
Double chance@1.28
X2
78%
Season stats
Lokomotiv PlovdivSlavia Sofia0.5Goals per game0.7
1.3Conceded per game0.7
0.69Points per game1.00
15%Win rate15%
-11Goal difference0
3Form, last 5 (pts)3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv form
LDWWDH Ludogorets0–3
H Slavia Sofia0–0
A Cherno More Varna0–1
A Yantra 20190–2
A Lokomotiv Sofia1–1
Slavia Sofia form
DDWLWA CSKA Sofia0–0
A Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–0
A Akademik Svishtov0–3
A Botev Plovdiv1–0
H Botev Vratsa2–1
Head to head
3
Lokomotiv
1
Draw
1
Slavia
Oct 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Slavia Sofia0–0
Feb 2026Slavia Sofia – Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–2
Aug 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Slavia Sofia2–1
May 2025Slavia Sofia – Lokomotiv Plovdiv1–2
Apr 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Slavia Sofia0–1
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali12-218
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Dunav Ruse13-711
10Botev Vratsa12-1110
Match preview
Our model makes Slavia Sofia slight favourites, giving them a 40% chance of winning against 38% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.4 goals in total (0.53 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 0.83 for Slavia Sofia), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 11th on 9 points; Slavia Sofia are 7th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.