Over 1.5 goals@1.61
Over 1.5
62%
BULFirst League · Matchday 14Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Stadion Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
11th · 9 pts0–3FULL TIME
Ludogorets
3rd · 29 pts11% Lokomotiv
24% Draw
65% Ludogorets
OUR PICK
Ludogorets to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.55
Expected goals
0.50 – 1.60
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X218.88X4.1321.55
Goals 2.5Over2.70Under1.54
Both scoreGG3.04NG1.46
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.54
Under 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.46
NG
69%
Double chance@1.13
X2
89%
Season stats
Lokomotiv PlovdivLudogorets0.5Goals per game2.0
1.3Conceded per game0.8
0.69Points per game2.42
15%Win rate75%
-11Goal difference15
3Form, last 5 (pts)12
Lokomotiv Plovdiv form
No recent matches.
Ludogorets form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Lokomotiv
0
Draw
0
Ludogorets
These sides haven't met recently.
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali12-218
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Dunav Ruse13-711
10Botev Vratsa12-1110
Match preview
Our model makes Ludogorets clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.55 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (0.50 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 1.60 for Ludogorets), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 11th on 9 points; Ludogorets are 3rd on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.