Over 1.5 goals@1.52
Over 1.5
66%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 15Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Estadio Bello Horizonte
Llaneros
14th · 22 pts1–0FULL TIME
Santa Fe
7th · 29 pts30% Llaneros
28% Draw
42% Santa
OUR PICK
Santa Fe to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.38
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.25
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.38X3.5122.38
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.64
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.82
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.64
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.82
NG
55%
Double chance@1.40
12
72%
Season stats
LlanerosSanta Fe0.9Goals per game1.5
1.1Conceded per game1.2
1.16Points per game1.53
21%Win rate37%
-3Goal difference7
6Form, last 5 (pts)9
Llaneros form
WLLWLH Junior3–2
A Jaguares1–0
H Deportivo Cali0–3
H Santa Fe1–0
A Internacional de Bogota4–1
Santa Fe form
LLWWLH Once Caldas0–2
A Atletico Nacional2–0
H Bucaramanga2–1
H Jaguares2–1
A Llaneros1–0
Head to head
3
Llaneros
0
Draw
1
Santa
Oct 2026Llaneros – Santa Fe1–0
Apr 2026Santa Fe – Llaneros0–1
Oct 2025Santa Fe – Llaneros1–3
May 2025Llaneros – Santa Fe0–1
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Santa Fe slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.00 for Llaneros, 1.25 for Santa Fe), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Llaneros sit 14th on 22 points; Santa Fe are 7th on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.