Over 1.5 goals@2.18
Over 1.5
46%
UKRPremier League · Matchday 8Monday, 12 October 2026 · Arena Livyi Bereg
Livyi Bereh
13th · 8 pts1–3FULL TIME
Zorya Luhansk
6th · 18 pts40% Livyi
36% Draw
24% Zorya
OUR PICK
Livyi Bereh to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.50
Expected goals
0.91 – 0.64
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.50X2.8224.09
Goals 2.5Over4.72Under1.26
Both scoreGG3.37NG1.39
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.26
Under 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.39
NG
72%
Double chance@1.32
1X
76%
Season stats
Livyi BerehZorya Luhansk0.7Goals per game1.2
0.9Conceded per game1.2
0.89Points per game1.64
11%Win rate45%
-2Goal difference0
4Form, last 5 (pts)10
Livyi Bereh form
LLDLLH Bukovyna0–1
H Veres Rivne0–1
H LNZ Cherkasy0–0
A FC Kharkiv2–1
H Zorya Luhansk1–3
Zorya Luhansk form
WDDWWH Epitsentr Dunayivtsi1–0
H Kryvbas KR1–1
A Shakhtar Donetsk0–0
H Chornomorets2–1
A Livyi Bereh1–3
Head to head
0
Livyi
0
Draw
3
Zorya
Oct 2026Livyi Bereh – Zorya Luhansk1–3
Apr 2025Zorya Luhansk – Livyi Bereh2–1
Oct 2024Livyi Bereh – Zorya Luhansk0–2
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Shakhtar Donetsk11+1728
2Polessya10+1525
3Dynamo Kyiv10+722
4FC Kharkiv9+1121
5Karpaty11+1419
6Zorya Luhansk11018
7LNZ Cherkasy10+115
8Kolos Kovalivka9-111
9Chornomorets10-49
10Epitsentr Dunayivtsi11-59
Match preview
Our model makes Livyi Bereh slight favourites, giving them a 40% chance of winning against 36% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.6 goals in total (0.91 for Livyi Bereh, 0.64 for Zorya Luhansk), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Livyi Bereh sit 13th on 8 points; Zorya Luhansk are 6th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.