Over 1.5 goals@1.51
Over 1.5
66%
SCOChampionship · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · The Home of the Set Fare Arena
Livingston
5th · 20 pts1–2FULL TIME
Ayr Utd
7th · 15 pts59% Livingston
25% Draw
16% Ayr
OUR PICK
Livingston to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.71
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.70
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.71X3.9926.10
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.66
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.67
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.67
NG
60%
Double chance@1.20
1X
84%
Season stats
LivingstonAyr Utd1.4Goals per game1.1
0.8Conceded per game1.2
1.54Points per game1.25
46%Win rate33%
7Goal difference-1
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Livingston form
WWDLLA Stenhousemuir0–3
H Arbroath1–0
A Dunfermline0–0
H Partick1–2
H Ayr Utd1–2
Ayr Utd form
WLDWH Queen's Park3–2
H Partick0–1
H Dunfermline1–1
A Livingston1–2
Head to head
3
Livingston
0
Draw
2
Ayr
Oct 2026Livingston – Ayr Utd1–2
Apr 2025Livingston – Ayr Utd5–0
Feb 2025Ayr Utd – Livingston1–2
Dec 2024Livingston – Ayr Utd0–1
Oct 2024Ayr Utd – Livingston1–2
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Partick13+1025
2Raith Rovers13+1124
3Dunfermline13+824
4Stenhousemuir13+123
5Livingston13+720
6Inverness CT13+119
7Ayr Utd12-115
8Arbroath13-1511
9Morton12-810
10Queen's Park13-147
Match preview
Our model makes Livingston clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.58 for Livingston, 0.70 for Ayr Utd), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Livingston sit 5th on 20 points; Ayr Utd are 7th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.