Over 1.5 goals@1.05
Over 1.5
96%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Anfield
Liverpool
3rd · 9 pts4–3FULL TIME
Villarreal
19th · 3 pts59% Liverpool
17% Draw
24% Villarreal
OUR PICK
Liverpool to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.69
Expected goals
2.99 – 1.93
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.69X5.9124.19
Goals 2.5Over1.15Under7.26
Both scoreGG1.23NG4.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.15
Over 2.5
87%
Both teams to score@1.23
GG
81%
Double chance@1.20
12
83%
Season stats
LiverpoolVillarreal4.0Goals per game2.7
2.3Conceded per game2.7
3.00Points per game1.00
100%Win rate33%
5Goal difference0
9Form, last 5 (pts)3
Liverpool form
LDWWWH Arsenal0–1
H Chelsea1–1
H Brighton2–0
H Villarreal4–3
A Brentford1–2
Villarreal form
LWWLDH Espanyol0–1
A Manacor0–5
A Valencia1–2
A Liverpool4–3
H Elche0–0
Head to head
4
Liverpool
0
Draw
1
Villarreal
Oct 2026Liverpool – Villarreal4–3
May 2022Villarreal – Liverpool2–3
Apr 2022Liverpool – Villarreal2–0
May 2016Liverpool – Villarreal3–0
Apr 2016Villarreal – Liverpool1–0
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Liverpool clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.9 goals in total (2.99 for Liverpool, 1.93 for Villarreal), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Liverpool sit 3rd on 9 points; Villarreal are 19th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.