Over 1.5 goals@1.55
Over 1.5
65%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Estadio Belvedere
Liverpool Montevideo
6th · 56 pts3–2FULL TIME
Progreso
15th · 35 pts61% Liverpool
25% Draw
14% Progreso
OUR PICK
Liverpool Montevideo to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.63
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.61
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.63X4.0427.12
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.61
Both scoreGG2.62NG1.57
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.57
NG
64%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
Liverpool MontevideoProgreso1.3Goals per game0.9
0.9Conceded per game1.4
1.65Points per game1.00
44%Win rate29%
14Goal difference-18
13Form, last 5 (pts)7
Liverpool Montevideo form
WWWWDH Juventud2–0
A Club Nacional0–1
H Cerro Largo1–0
H Penarol1–0
A Deportivo Maldonado1–1
Progreso form
LWWDLH Defensor Sporting0–2
A Wanderers0–1
H Juventud2–0
A Penarol1–1
A Liverpool Montevideo3–2
Head to head
4
Liverpool
1
Draw
0
Progreso
Oct 2026Liverpool Montevideo – Progreso3–2
Mar 2026Progreso – Liverpool Montevideo3–3
Oct 2025Liverpool Montevideo – Progreso3–1
Apr 2025Progreso – Liverpool Montevideo0–2
Nov 2024Liverpool Montevideo – Progreso2–1
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Liverpool Montevideo clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.63 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.59 for Liverpool Montevideo, 0.61 for Progreso), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Liverpool Montevideo sit 6th on 56 points; Progreso are 15th on 35.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.