Over 1.5 goals@1.60
Over 1.5
63%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 11Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Estadio Belvedere
Liverpool Montevideo
6th · 59 pts1–0FULL TIME
Penarol
1st · 65 pts35% Liverpool
30% Draw
35% Penarol
OUR PICK
Penarol to win
Model probability 35% · fair odds
2.85
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.06
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.85X3.3622.85
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.55
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.75
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.55
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.75
NG
57%
Double chance@1.42
12
70%
Season stats
Liverpool MontevideoPenarol1.3Goals per game1.5
0.9Conceded per game0.8
1.69Points per game1.86
46%Win rate54%
16Goal difference24
13Form, last 5 (pts)6
Liverpool Montevideo form
WWWWDH Juventud2–0
A Club Nacional0–1
H Cerro Largo1–0
H Penarol1–0
A Deportivo Maldonado1–1
Penarol form
DLDLDH Wanderers1–1
H Atletico Torque0–2
A Juventud0–0
A Liverpool Montevideo1–0
H Progreso1–1
Head to head
2
Liverpool
1
Draw
2
Penarol
Oct 2026Liverpool Montevideo – Penarol1–0
May 2026Penarol – Liverpool Montevideo2–1
Apr 2026Penarol – Liverpool Montevideo0–2
Nov 2025Liverpool Montevideo – Penarol1–2
Sept 2025Liverpool Montevideo – Penarol2–2
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado35+2263
3Atletico Torque35+1863
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo35+1659
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC35+347
9Juventud35-641
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Liverpool Montevideo 35%, the draw 30%, Penarol 35%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.85 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.06 for Liverpool Montevideo, 1.06 for Penarol), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Liverpool Montevideo sit 6th on 59 points; Penarol are 1st on 65.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.