Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
74%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 6Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Anfield
Liverpool
5th · 15 pts0–3FULL TIME
Manchester City
2nd · 21 pts44% Liverpool
26% Draw
31% Manchester
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Both teams to score
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.17
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.30X3.8523.28
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.95
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
LiverpoolManchester City1.2Goals per game2.2
1.0Conceded per game1.1
1.67Points per game2.33
44%Win rate78%
2Goal difference10
9Form, last 5 (pts)9
Liverpool form
LDWWWH Arsenal0–1
H Chelsea1–1
H Brighton2–0
H Villarreal4–3
A Brentford1–2
Manchester City form
LDLWWH Brighton0–1
H Brighton2–2
A Aston Villa2–1
H AEK Athens FC5–1
H Ipswich3–2
Head to head
0
Liverpool
0
Draw
0
Manchester
These sides haven't met recently.
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Liverpool slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.30 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.45 for Liverpool, 1.17 for Manchester City), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Liverpool sit 5th on 15 points; Manchester City are 2nd on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.