Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 8Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Anfield
Liverpool
5th · 15 pts2–0FULL TIME
Brighton
3rd · 19 pts16% Liverpool
21% Draw
63% Brighton
OUR PICK
Brighton to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.60
Expected goals
0.86 – 1.94
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X216.26X4.6821.60
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.98
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.98
NG
51%
Double chance@1.19
X2
84%
Season stats
LiverpoolBrighton1.2Goals per game2.7
1.0Conceded per game0.8
1.67Points per game2.11
44%Win rate67%
2Goal difference17
9Form, last 5 (pts)12
Liverpool form
LDWWWH Arsenal0–1
H Chelsea1–1
H Brighton2–0
H Villarreal4–3
A Brentford1–2
Brighton form
WDLDWA Manchester City0–1
A Manchester City2–2
A Liverpool2–0
A FK Jablonec0–0
H Crystal Palace5–0
Head to head
3
Liverpool
0
Draw
2
Brighton
Oct 2026Liverpool – Brighton2–0
Mar 2026Brighton – Liverpool2–1
Feb 2026Liverpool – Brighton3–0
Dec 2025Liverpool – Brighton2–0
May 2025Brighton – Liverpool3–2
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Brighton clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.60 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (0.86 for Liverpool, 1.94 for Brighton), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Liverpool sit 5th on 15 points; Brighton are 3rd on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.