Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
75%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Sincil Bank
Lincoln
16th · 15 pts4–1FULL TIME
Burnley
22nd · 9 pts33% Lincoln
26% Draw
41% Burnley
OUR PICK
Burnley to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.42
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.45
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.02X3.9122.42
Goals 2.5Over1.96Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.34
12
74%
Season stats
LincolnBurnley1.1Goals per game1.3
1.8Conceded per game1.9
1.15Points per game0.69
31%Win rate8%
-9Goal difference-8
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Lincoln form
LWDLLH Birmingham1–3
H Burnley4–1
A Millwall2–2
H West Ham0–6
A Sheffield Utd3–0
Burnley form
DLLDWH Portsmouth0–0
A Lincoln4–1
H Wolves1–2
H Charlton2–2
A Watford0–4
Head to head
2
Lincoln
0
Draw
0
Burnley
Oct 2026Lincoln – Burnley4–1
Feb 2017Burnley – Lincoln0–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Lincoln 33%, the draw 26%, Burnley 41%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.27 for Lincoln, 1.45 for Burnley), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lincoln sit 16th on 15 points; Burnley are 22nd on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.