Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 13Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Sincil Bank
Lincoln
16th · 15 pts1–3FULL TIME
Birmingham
6th · 23 pts21% Lincoln
23% Draw
55% Birmingham
OUR PICK
Birmingham to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.80
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.76
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.74X4.2721.80
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.92NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.92
GG
52%
Double chance@1.27
X2
79%
Season stats
LincolnBirmingham1.1Goals per game1.8
1.8Conceded per game1.0
1.15Points per game1.77
31%Win rate46%
-9Goal difference10
4Form, last 5 (pts)12
Lincoln form
No recent matches.
Birmingham form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Lincoln
0
Draw
0
Birmingham
These sides haven't met recently.
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Birmingham clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.80 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (0.99 for Lincoln, 1.76 for Birmingham), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lincoln sit 16th on 15 points; Birmingham are 6th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.