Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
NOREliteserien · Matchday 23Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Åråsen Stadion
Lillestrom
6th · 39 pts2–2FULL TIME
Molde
3rd · 43 pts35% Lillestrom
23% Draw
42% Molde
OUR PICK
Molde to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.39
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.73
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.84X4.3522.39
Goals 2.5Over1.56Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.53NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.53
GG
65%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
LillestromMolde1.5Goals per game2.4
1.4Conceded per game1.6
1.63Points per game1.72
50%Win rate52%
2Goal difference20
10Form, last 5 (pts)7
Lillestrom form
WWWLWA Start0–1
H Sogndal2–1
H Brann3–2
H Real Sociedad0–6
A Sandefjord0–2
Molde form
LWWWDA Brann3–2
H Stromsgodset4–1
H Fredrikstad5–1
H Start6–1
A Lillestrom2–2
Head to head
1
Lillestrom
1
Draw
3
Molde
Oct 2026Lillestrom – Molde2–2
Apr 2026Molde – Lillestrom0–1
Oct 2024Lillestrom – Molde1–2
Aug 2024Lillestrom – Molde1–2
Jul 2024Molde – Lillestrom3–0
Eliteserien table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Viking25+3859
2Bodo/Glimt25+3859
3Molde25+2043
4Rosenborg25+1843
5Tromso24+940
6Lillestrom24+239
7Brann25+332
8Sarpsborg 08 FF24-531
9KFUM Oslo24-930
10Valerenga24-729
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Lillestrom 35%, the draw 23%, Molde 42%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.57 for Lillestrom, 1.73 for Molde), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lillestrom sit 6th on 39 points; Molde are 3rd on 43.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.