NOREliteserien · Matchday 26Sunday, 8 November 2026

Lillestrom

5th · 42 pts

17:00KICK-OFF WAT

Aalesund

14th · 24 pts

59% Lillestrom

20% Draw

21% Aalesund

OUR PICK

Lillestrom to win

Model probability 59% · fair odds

1.71

Expected goals

2.21 – 1.27

Confidence

Medium

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.71X4.9724.70

Goals 2.5Over1.48Under2.86

Both scoreGG1.56NG2.62

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.16

Over 1.5

86%

Over/Under 2.5@1.48

Over 2.5

67%

Both teams to score@1.56

64%

Double chance@1.25

80%

Season stats

LillestromAalesund

1.4Goals per game1.7

1.3Conceded per game2.3

1.68Points per game0.96

52%Win rate20%

3Goal difference-14

10Form, last 5 (pts)6

Lillestrom form

WWWLW

A Start0–1

H Sogndal2–1

H Brann3–2

H Real Sociedad0–6

A Sandefjord0–2

Aalesund form

LWLWL

H Sandefjord3–4

A Kristiansund BK0–2

A Sarpsborg 08 FF2–1

A Kristiansund BK1–4

H Sarpsborg 08 FF2–4

Head to head

Lillestrom

Draw

Aalesund

Mar 2026Aalesund – Lillestrom1–3

Aug 2025Lillestrom – Aalesund5–1

Mar 2025Aalesund – Lillestrom2–2

Sept 2023Aalesund – Lillestrom1–1

Jul 2023Lillestrom – Aalesund5–1

Eliteserien table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Viking25+3859

2Bodo/Glimt25+3859

3Molde25+2043

4Rosenborg25+1843

5Lillestrom25+342

6Tromso25+540

7Brann25+332

8Valerenga25-332

9Sarpsborg 08 FF25-731

10KFUM Oslo25-931

Match preview

Our model makes Lillestrom clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.21 for Lillestrom, 1.27 for Aalesund), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Lillestrom sit 5th on 42 points; Aalesund are 14th on 24.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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