Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 9Friday, 30 October 2026 · Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille
2nd · 18 pts1–0FULL TIME
Lens
9th · 13 pts49% Lille
25% Draw
26% Lens
OUR PICK
Lille to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.05
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.09
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.05X3.9923.81
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.00
Both scoreGG1.90NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@2.00
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.90
GG
53%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
LilleLens1.3Goals per game1.8
0.7Conceded per game1.4
2.00Points per game1.44
56%Win rate44%
6Goal difference3
8Form, last 5 (pts)9
Lille form
WDLDLH Lens1–0
A Monaco1–1
H Galatasaray2–4
H Stade Brestois 291–1
A Arsenal3–0
Lens form
LWLWLA Lille1–0
H Paris FC2–1
A Club Brugge KV3–0
A Estac Troyes1–3
H Sporting CP0–2
Head to head
4
Lille
0
Draw
1
Lens
Oct 2026Lille – Lens1–0
Apr 2026Lille – Lens3–0
Sept 2025Lens – Lille3–0
Mar 2025Lille – Lens1–0
Oct 2024Lens – Lille0–2
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Lille slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.05 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.58 for Lille, 1.09 for Lens), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lille sit 2nd on 18 points; Lens are 9th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.