Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille
2nd · 18 pts1–0FULL TIME
Le Havre
18th · 2 pts71% Lille
18% Draw
11% Le
OUR PICK
Lille to win
Model probability 71% · fair odds
1.42
Expected goals
2.19 – 0.74
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.42X5.4828.90
Goals 2.5Over1.79Under2.14
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.87
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.87
NG
54%
Double chance@1.13
1X
89%
Season stats
LilleLe Havre1.3Goals per game1.0
0.7Conceded per game2.2
2.00Points per game0.22
56%Win rate0%
6Goal difference-11
8Form, last 5 (pts)0
Lille form
WDLDLH Lens1–0
A Monaco1–1
H Galatasaray2–4
H Stade Brestois 291–1
A Arsenal3–0
Le Havre form
LLLLWH Paris Saint Germain1–5
A Marseille4–3
H Auxerre1–3
A Lille1–0
H Boulogne6–1
Head to head
3
Lille
1
Draw
1
Le
Oct 2026Lille – Le Havre1–0
May 2026Lille – Le Havre1–1
Nov 2025Le Havre – Lille0–1
Feb 2025Lille – Le Havre1–2
Sept 2024Le Havre – Lille0–3
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Lille clear favourites, giving them a 71% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (2.19 for Lille, 0.74 for Le Havre), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lille sit 2nd on 18 points; Le Havre are 18th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.