Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
77%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Matchroom Stadium
Leyton Orient
14th · 17 pts0–2FULL TIME
Plymouth
5th · 23 pts55% Leyton
23% Draw
21% Plymouth
OUR PICK
Leyton Orient to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.81
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.01
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.81X4.2824.66
Goals 2.5Over1.90Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.90NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.90
GG
53%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Season stats
Leyton OrientPlymouth1.5Goals per game1.5
1.1Conceded per game1.4
1.31Points per game1.64
38%Win rate50%
5Goal difference2
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Leyton Orient form
WLLWDH Cambridge United3–0
A Burton Albion2–1
A Reading1–0
H Blackpool2–0
A Bradford0–0
Plymouth form
DWLLWH Reading0–0
A Cambridge United2–3
A Stevenage3–0
H Huddersfield0–2
H AFC Wimbledon2–1
Head to head
1
Leyton
0
Draw
4
Plymouth
Oct 2026Leyton Orient – Plymouth0–2
Feb 2026Leyton Orient – Plymouth1–3
Dec 2025Leyton Orient – Plymouth0–1
Aug 2025Plymouth – Leyton Orient0–1
Aug 2023Plymouth – Leyton Orient2–0
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Leyton Orient clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.81 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.77 for Leyton Orient, 1.01 for Plymouth), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Leyton Orient sit 14th on 17 points; Plymouth are 5th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.