Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
77%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageFriday, 9 October 2026 · Lexington SC Stadium
Lexington
0–0FULL TIME
FC Tulsa
53% Lexington
24% Draw
23% FC
OUR PICK
Lexington to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.06
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.89X4.1924.29
Goals 2.5Over1.90Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.86NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.86
GG
54%
Double chance@1.30
1X
77%
Lexington form
DDWDWH Colorado Springs1–1
A Phoenix Rising3–3
A Las Vegas Lights3–5
H FC Tulsa0–0
H El Paso Locomotive3–1
FC Tulsa form
LLLDDA Sacramento Republic1–0
A Colorado Springs2–0
H Oakland Roots2–4
A Lexington0–0
H Sacramento Republic1–1
Head to head
0
Lexington
2
Draw
2
FC
Oct 2026Lexington – FC Tulsa0–0
Jul 2026FC Tulsa – Lexington0–0
Oct 2025FC Tulsa – Lexington3–0
May 2025Lexington – FC Tulsa0–2
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Lexington slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.72 for Lexington, 1.06 for FC Tulsa), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.