Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSaturday, 3 October 2026 · Toyota Stadium
Lexington
3–1FULL TIME
El Paso Locomotive
48% Lexington
23% Draw
29% El
OUR PICK
Lexington to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.08
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.37
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.08X4.3723.45
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
63%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Lexington form
DDWDWH Colorado Springs1–1
A Phoenix Rising3–3
A Las Vegas Lights3–5
H FC Tulsa0–0
H El Paso Locomotive3–1
El Paso Locomotive form
WLLWLH San Antonio2–1
H New Mexico United0–1
H Sacramento Republic0–1
H Orange County SC2–1
A Lexington3–1
Head to head
2
Lexington
0
Draw
2
El
Oct 2026Lexington – El Paso Locomotive3–1
May 2026El Paso Locomotive – Lexington1–4
Oct 2025Lexington – El Paso Locomotive1–2
Apr 2025El Paso Locomotive – Lexington2–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Lexington slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.08 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.82 for Lexington, 1.37 for El Paso Locomotive), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.