Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4Thursday, 5 November 2026 · Vasil Levski National Stadium
Levski Sofia
17th · 4 pts18:45KICK-OFF WAT
Jagiellonia
27th · 3 pts50% Levski
24% Draw
25% Jagiellonia
OUR PICK
Levski Sofia to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
1.99
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.10
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.99X4.0923.94
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.86NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.86
GG
54%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Levski SofiaJagiellonia1.0Goals per game1.3
1.0Conceded per game2.0
1.33Points per game1.00
33%Win rate33%
0Goal difference-2
4Form, last 5 (pts)3
Levski Sofia form
WDWWDA Dunav Ruse0–1
A Arda Kardzhali1–1
A Plzen1–2
A Spartak Pleven0–2
A NEC Nijmegen1–1
Jagiellonia form
WWWLLA Wieczysta Kraków1–3
A Lechia Gdansk0–6
H Wisla Plock1–0
H Anderlecht0–3
A Zaglebie Lubin1–0
Head to head
0
Levski
0
Draw
0
Jagiellonia
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Levski Sofia slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.99 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.65 for Levski Sofia, 1.10 for Jagiellonia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Levski Sofia sit 17th on 4 points; Jagiellonia are 27th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.