Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 8Monday, 12 October 2026 · Estadio Ciudad de Valencia
Levante
18th · 10 pts3–3FULL TIME
Sevilla
6th · 17 pts41% Levante
24% Draw
35% Sevilla
OUR PICK
Levante to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.45
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.46
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.45X4.1622.84
Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.64NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.64
GG
61%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
LevanteSevilla1.5Goals per game1.5
1.9Conceded per game1.7
0.91Points per game1.55
18%Win rate45%
-5Goal difference-2
5Form, last 5 (pts)4
Levante form
LLWDDH Atletico Madrid0–2
A Real Sociedad2–1
H Athletic Club3–1
A Deportivo La Coruna1–1
H Sevilla3–3
Sevilla form
LWWLDA Getafe3–1
A Hortaleza0–3
H Osasuna2–0
A Real Madrid4–1
A Levante3–3
Head to head
2
Levante
1
Draw
2
Sevilla
Oct 2026Levante – Sevilla3–3
Apr 2026Levante – Sevilla2–0
Jan 2026Sevilla – Levante0–3
Apr 2022Levante – Sevilla2–3
Oct 2021Sevilla – Levante5–3
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Levante 41%, the draw 24%, Sevilla 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.45 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.59 for Levante, 1.46 for Sevilla), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Levante sit 18th on 10 points; Sevilla are 6th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.