Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
74%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 6Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Estadio Ciudad de Valencia
Levante
18th · 10 pts3–1FULL TIME
Athletic Club
7th · 15 pts24% Levante
25% Draw
51% Athletic
OUR PICK
Athletic Club to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.95
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.61
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.21X4.0221.95
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.95
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.31
X2
76%
Season stats
LevanteAthletic Club1.5Goals per game1.4
1.9Conceded per game1.0
0.91Points per game1.50
18%Win rate40%
-5Goal difference4
5Form, last 5 (pts)8
Levante form
LLWDDH Atletico Madrid0–2
A Real Sociedad2–1
H Athletic Club3–1
A Deportivo La Coruna1–1
H Sevilla3–3
Athletic Club form
WWLDDA Prat1–6
H Getafe4–0
A Levante3–1
A Valencia0–0
A Rayo Vallecano0–0
Head to head
1
Levante
1
Draw
3
Athletic
Oct 2026Levante – Athletic Club3–1
Feb 2026Athletic Club – Levante4–2
Nov 2025Levante – Athletic Club0–2
Mar 2022Athletic Club – Levante3–1
Nov 2021Levante – Athletic Club0–0
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Athletic Club slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.95 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.01 for Levante, 1.61 for Athletic Club), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Levante sit 18th on 10 points; Athletic Club are 7th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.