Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 12Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Estadio Leon
Leon
7th · 22 pts3–5FULL TIME
Club America
1st · 29 pts38% Leon
25% Draw
36% Club
OUR PICK
Leon to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.62
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.36
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.62X3.9222.75
Goals 2.5Over1.92Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.79NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.79
GG
56%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
LeonClub America1.5Goals per game2.4
1.3Conceded per game1.4
1.57Points per game1.93
43%Win rate53%
3Goal difference15
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
Leon form
No recent matches.
Club America form
DDLWWH Toluca2–2
H Club Tijuana1–1
H CF Pachuca1–2
A Atlas2–5
A Leon3–5
Head to head
0
Leon
0
Draw
0
Club
These sides haven't met recently.
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Atlas15027
4Cruz Azul14+926
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon14+322
8Monterrey14+521
9U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
10Club Queretaro14-320
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Leon 38%, the draw 25%, Club America 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.62 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.40 for Leon, 1.36 for Club America), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Leon sit 7th on 22 points; Club America are 1st on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.