FRALigue 1 · Matchday 8Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Lens

9th · 13 pts

2–1FULL TIME

Paris FC

4th · 17 pts

36% Lens

24% Draw

40% Paris

OUR PICK

Paris FC to win

Model probability 40% · fair odds

2.50

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.55

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.80X4.1222.50

Goals 2.5Over1.73Under2.25

Both scoreGG1.66NG2.36

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.25

Over 1.5

80%

Over/Under 2.5@1.73

Over 2.5

58%

Both teams to score@1.66

60%

Double chance@1.32

76%

Season stats

LensParis FC

1.8Goals per game1.8

1.4Conceded per game1.1

1.44Points per game1.89

44%Win rate56%

3Goal difference6

9Form, last 5 (pts)9

Lens form

LWLWL

A Lille1–0

H Paris FC2–1

A Club Brugge KV3–0

A Estac Troyes1–3

H Sporting CP0–2

Paris FC form

WLWLW

H Monaco3–1

A Lens2–1

H Rennes4–3

A Lorient1–0

H Strasbourg2–1

Head to head

Lens

Draw

Paris

Oct 2026Lens – Paris FC2–1

Feb 2026Paris FC – Lens0–5

Oct 2025Lens – Paris FC2–1

Jul 2022Lens – Paris FC0–0

Aug 2020Lens – Paris FC1–2

Ligue 1 table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Paris Saint Germain9+1120

2Lille9+618

3Lyon9+817

4Paris FC9+617

5Rennes9+116

6Marseille9+715

7Monaco9+215

8Nice9+114

9Lens9+313

10Lorient8+112

Match preview

Our model sees little between the sides: Lens 36%, the draw 24%, Paris FC 40%.

Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.45 for Lens, 1.55 for Paris FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Lens sit 9th on 13 points; Paris FC are 4th on 17.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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