Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
88%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 10Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens
8th · 13 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Marseille
9th · 12 pts44% Lens
21% Draw
34% Marseille
OUR PICK
Lens to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.25
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.72
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.25X4.6622.93
Goals 2.5Over1.40Under3.25
Both scoreGG1.41NG3.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.40
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.41
GG
71%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
LensMarseille1.8Goals per game2.3
1.4Conceded per game1.6
1.44Points per game1.50
44%Win rate50%
3Goal difference5
9Form, last 5 (pts)9
Lens form
LWLWLA Lille1–0
H Paris FC2–1
A Club Brugge KV3–0
A Estac Troyes1–3
H Sporting CP0–2
Marseille form
WLWLWH Le Havre4–3
A Sturm Graz1–0
A Angers2–5
H Olympiakos Piraeus0–1
A Estac Troyes0–2
Head to head
2
Lens
0
Draw
3
Marseille
Jan 2026Marseille – Lens3–1
Oct 2025Lens – Marseille2–1
Mar 2025Marseille – Lens0–1
Nov 2024Lens – Marseille1–3
Apr 2024Marseille – Lens2–1
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Rennes9+116
4Monaco8+415
5Lyon8+614
6Paris FC8+414
7Nice9+114
8Lens9+313
9Marseille8+512
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Lens slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (1.98 for Lens, 1.72 for Marseille), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lens sit 8th on 13 points; Marseille are 9th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.