Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 7Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estadio do Mar
Leixoes
13th · 10 pts1–2FULL TIME
FC Porto B
16th · 8 pts59% Leixoes
22% Draw
19% FC
OUR PICK
Leixoes to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
1.86 – 0.94
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.70X4.4725.36
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.94NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.94
GG
51%
Double chance@1.23
1X
81%
Season stats
LeixoesFC Porto B1.1Goals per game0.9
1.6Conceded per game1.9
1.11Points per game0.89
33%Win rate22%
-4Goal difference-9
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Leixoes form
LLLLWH Sporting CP B1–2
A Academica4–0
A Vianense1–0
H FC Porto B1–2
A Cinfães0–4
FC Porto B form
LDWDLA Amarante2–1
H União de Leiria1–1
A Leixoes1–2
H Vizela2–2
A Tondela3–0
Head to head
3
Leixoes
0
Draw
2
FC
Oct 2026Leixoes – FC Porto B1–2
Apr 2026FC Porto B – Leixoes0–3
Dec 2025Leixoes – FC Porto B2–4
Mar 2025FC Porto B – Leixoes0–1
Oct 2024Leixoes – FC Porto B3–0
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Lusitânia Lourosa8+718
3Benfica B9+517
4Penafiel8+1016
5Academica9+315
6Farense8+414
7União de Leiria9+214
8Vizela9+114
9AVS9+112
10Tondela8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Leixoes clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.86 for Leixoes, 0.94 for FC Porto B), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Leixoes sit 13th on 10 points; FC Porto B are 16th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.