Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · King Power Stadium
Leicester
10th · 19 pts2–1FULL TIME
Doncaster
20th · 12 pts59% Leicester
21% Draw
20% Doncaster
OUR PICK
Leicester to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.69
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.09
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.69X4.7525.08
Goals 2.5Over1.65Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.73NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.73
GG
58%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
LeicesterDoncaster1.7Goals per game1.1
1.5Conceded per game1.7
1.46Points per game0.92
38%Win rate23%
3Goal difference-8
10Form, last 5 (pts)3
Leicester form
DWLWWH Stevenage2–2
H Wigan3–0
A Luton2–1
A Bromley0–4
H Doncaster2–1
Doncaster form
LLWLLA Milton Keynes Dons6–1
A Luton3–1
H Sheffield Wednesday2–0
H Stockport County0–2
A Leicester2–1
Head to head
3
Leicester
0
Draw
2
Doncaster
Oct 2026Leicester – Doncaster2–1
May 2014Leicester – Doncaster1–0
Oct 2013Doncaster – Leicester1–0
Apr 2012Leicester – Doncaster4–0
Dec 2011Doncaster – Leicester2–1
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Leicester clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.04 for Leicester, 1.09 for Doncaster), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Leicester sit 10th on 19 points; Doncaster are 20th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.