Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 10Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Stadion Wojska Polskiego
Legia Warszawa
3rd · 24 pts2–0FULL TIME
Wisla Krakow
8th · 21 pts54% Legia
24% Draw
22% Wisla
OUR PICK
Legia Warszawa to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.85
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.03
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.85X4.2324.48
Goals 2.5Over1.91Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.29
1X
78%
Season stats
Legia WarszawaWisla Krakow1.8Goals per game1.5
0.8Conceded per game1.4
1.85Points per game1.62
46%Win rate46%
12Goal difference2
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
Legia Warszawa form
DLDWWA Gornik Zabrze0–0
H Lech Poznan1–2
A Cracovia Krakow1–1
H Wisla Krakow2–0
H Korona Kielce5–1
Wisla Krakow form
LWDLWA Lech Poznan3–1
H Raków Częstochowa2–1
A Widzew Łódź0–0
A Legia Warszawa2–0
A Piast Gliwice3–4
Head to head
3
Legia
1
Draw
1
Wisla
Oct 2026Legia Warszawa – Wisla Krakow2–0
Feb 2022Legia Warszawa – Wisla Krakow2–1
Aug 2021Wisla Krakow – Legia Warszawa1–0
May 2021Legia Warszawa – Wisla Krakow0–0
Dec 2020Wisla Krakow – Legia Warszawa1–2
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin12+824
5Zaglebie Lubin13+122
6GKS Katowice13+621
7Piast Gliwice13+421
8Wisla Krakow13+221
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce13-518
Match preview
Our model makes Legia Warszawa clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.85 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.74 for Legia Warszawa, 1.03 for Wisla Krakow), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Legia Warszawa sit 3rd on 24 points; Wisla Krakow are 8th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.